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Neman Mosty vs Baranovichi — League #118 2026

Neman Mosty
Neman Mosty
FT
1 – 0
Baranovichi
Baranovichi
9/1/2013League #118League #118 · Round 16Stadyen Nyoman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Neman Mosty47%
×Draw35%
Baranovichi18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neman Mosty
1.00
Baranovichi
0.50

Neman Mosty creates 100% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Neman Mosty
1.00
Baranovichi
0.33

allows per match

Neman Mosty
0.67
Baranovichi
1.00

finishing

Neman Mosty+0.00on par
Baranovichi+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neman Mosty ↓

Baranovichi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–111%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Neman Mosty or draw
82%
Neman Mosty or Baranovichi
65%
Draw or Baranovichi
53%

Winning margin

Neman Mosty wins by 2+
19%
Baranovichi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Neman Mosty 1+ goals
63%
Neman Mosty 2+ goals
26%
Neman Mosty 3+ goals
8%
Baranovichi 1+ goals
39%
Baranovichi 2+ goals
9%
Baranovichi 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Neman Mosty (draw refunded)
72%
Baranovichi (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neman Mosty at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Baranovichi away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neman Mosty attack 1.00 + Baranovichi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Baranovichi attack 0.33 + Neman Mosty defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Neman Mosty scores more
47%
level
35%
Baranovichi scores more
18%

Neman Mosty at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Neman Mosty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neman Mosty vs Baranovichi

Neman Mosty beat Baranovichi 1-0 in League #118 on September 1, 2013.

The match was played at Stadyen Nyoman in Mosty.