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Baranovichi vs Neman Mosty — League #118 2026

Baranovichi
Baranovichi
FT
0 – 3
Neman Mosty
Neman Mosty
8/3/2014League #118League #118 · Group B - 15Stadyen Lyakamatyu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Baranovichi25%
×Draw24%
Neman Mosty51%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baranovichi
1.10
Neman Mosty
1.68

Neman Mosty creates 53% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Baranovichi
1.20
Neman Mosty
1.75

allows per match

Baranovichi
1.60
Neman Mosty
1.00

finishing

Baranovichi+0.00on par
Neman Mosty+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baranovichi ↓

Neman Mosty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Baranovichi or draw
49%
Baranovichi or Neman Mosty
76%
Draw or Neman Mosty
75%

Winning margin

Baranovichi wins by 2+
9%
Neman Mosty wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Baranovichi 1+ goals
67%
Baranovichi 2+ goals
30%
Baranovichi 3+ goals
10%
Neman Mosty 1+ goals
81%
Neman Mosty 2+ goals
50%
Neman Mosty 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Baranovichi (draw refunded)
33%
Neman Mosty (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baranovichi at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Neman Mosty away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baranovichi attack 1.20 + Neman Mosty defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Neman Mosty attack 1.75 + Baranovichi defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Baranovichi scores more
25%
level
24%
Neman Mosty scores more
51%

Neman Mosty at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Neman Mosty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #118: Baranovichi 0–3 Neman Mosty

Neman Mosty beat Baranovichi 3-0 in League #118 on August 3, 2014.

The match was played at Stadyen Lyakamatyu in Baranovichy.