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Uthai Thani vs Udon Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
FT
8 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Udon Thani
Udon Thani
4/30/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 34Uthai Thani Province Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Uthai Thani53%
×Draw23%
Udon Thani25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uthai Thani
1.86
Udon Thani
1.20

Uthai Thani creates 55% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 82 away

creates per match

Uthai Thani
1.78
Udon Thani
1.15

allows per match

Uthai Thani
1.25
Udon Thani
1.94

finishing

Uthai Thani+0.00on par
Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uthai Thani ↓

Udon Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Uthai Thani or draw
75%
Uthai Thani or Udon Thani
77%
Draw or Udon Thani
47%

Winning margin

Uthai Thani wins by 2+
30%
Udon Thani wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Uthai Thani 1+ goals
84%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
55%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
28%
Udon Thani 1+ goals
70%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
34%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
68%
Udon Thani (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uthai Thani at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uthai Thani attack 1.78 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.86

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Uthai Thani defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Uthai Thani scores more
53%
level
23%
Udon Thani scores more
25%

Uthai Thani at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Uthai Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uthai Thani vs Udon Thani

Uthai Thani beat Udon Thani 8-1 in Thai League 2 on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Uthai Thani.