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Udon Thani vs Uthai Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Udon Thani
Udon Thani
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
8/14/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 1Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Udon Thani37%
×Draw26%
Uthai Thani37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udon Thani
1.38
Uthai Thani
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 36 away

creates per match

Udon Thani
1.37
Uthai Thani
1.39

allows per match

Udon Thani
1.35
Uthai Thani
1.39

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par
Uthai Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Uthai Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw
63%
Udon Thani or Uthai Thani
74%
Draw or Uthai Thani
63%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+
17%
Uthai Thani wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals
75%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
40%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
16%
Uthai Thani 1+ goals
75%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
40%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)
50%
Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Uthai Thani away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Uthai Thani defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Uthai Thani attack 1.39 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Udon Thani scores more
37%
level
26%
Uthai Thani scores more
37%

Udon Thani at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Udon Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Udon Thani vs Uthai Thani

Uthai Thani beat Udon Thani 4-2 in Thai League 2 on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium in Udon Thani.