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Uthai Thani vs Suphanburi — Thai League 2 2018

Uthai Thani
Uthai Thaniadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Suphanburi
Suphanburi
5/12/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsUthai Thani Province Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Uthai Thani54%
×Draw24%
Suphanburi23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uthai Thani
1.75
Suphanburi
1.05

Uthai Thani creates 67% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 52 away

creates per match

Uthai Thani
1.78
Suphanburi
0.85

allows per match

Uthai Thani
1.25
Suphanburi
1.71

finishing

Uthai Thani+0.00on par
Suphanburi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uthai Thani ↓

Suphanburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Uthai Thani or draw
77%
Uthai Thani or Suphanburi
76%
Draw or Suphanburi
46%

Winning margin

Uthai Thani wins by 2+
30%
Suphanburi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Uthai Thani 1+ goals
83%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
52%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
25%
Suphanburi 1+ goals
65%
Suphanburi 2+ goals
28%
Suphanburi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
70%
Suphanburi (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uthai Thani at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

Suphanburi away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uthai Thani attack 1.78 + Suphanburi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

Suphanburi attack 0.85 + Uthai Thani defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Uthai Thani scores more
54%
level
24%
Suphanburi scores more
23%

Uthai Thani at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Uthai Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uthai Thani vs Suphanburi

Uthai Thani beat Suphanburi 3-1 in Thai League 2 on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Uthai Thani.