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Suphanburi vs Uthai Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Suphanburi
Suphanburi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
10/22/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 10Suphanburi Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Suphanburi39%
×Draw26%
Uthai Thani35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suphanburi
1.42
Uthai Thani
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 36 away

creates per match

Suphanburi
1.45
Uthai Thani
1.39

allows per match

Suphanburi
1.27
Uthai Thani
1.39

finishing

Suphanburi+0.00on par
Uthai Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suphanburi ↓

Uthai Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Suphanburi or draw
65%
Suphanburi or Uthai Thani
74%
Draw or Uthai Thani
61%

Winning margin

Suphanburi wins by 2+
18%
Uthai Thani wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Suphanburi 1+ goals
76%
Suphanburi 2+ goals
41%
Suphanburi 3+ goals
17%
Uthai Thani 1+ goals
74%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
38%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Suphanburi (draw refunded)
53%
Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suphanburi at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Uthai Thani away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suphanburi attack 1.45 + Uthai Thani defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Uthai Thani attack 1.39 + Suphanburi defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Suphanburi scores more
39%
level
26%
Uthai Thani scores more
35%

Suphanburi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Suphanburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suphanburi vs Uthai Thani

Suphanburi beat Uthai Thani 1-0 in Thai League 2 on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium in Suphanburi.