Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Uthai Thani vs Lampang FC — Thai League 2 2018

Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
FT
0 – 2
Lampang FC
Lampang FC
W. Tanee 87'
R. Alex 27'
2/7/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 19Uthai Thani Province Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Uthai Thani45%
×Draw24%
Lampang FC31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uthai Thani
1.66
Lampang FC
1.34

Uthai Thani creates 24% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 90 away

creates per match

Uthai Thani
1.78
Lampang FC
1.44

allows per match

Uthai Thani
1.25
Lampang FC
1.53

finishing

Uthai Thani+0.00on par
Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uthai Thani ↓

Lampang FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Uthai Thani or draw
69%
Uthai Thani or Lampang FC
76%
Draw or Lampang FC
55%

Winning margin

Uthai Thani wins by 2+
23%
Lampang FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Uthai Thani 1+ goals
81%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
49%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
23%
Lampang FC 1+ goals
74%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
39%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
59%
Lampang FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uthai Thani at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uthai Thani attack 1.78 + Lampang FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.66

Lampang FC attack 1.44 + Uthai Thani defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Uthai Thani scores more
45%
level
24%
Lampang FC scores more
31%

Uthai Thani at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Uthai Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
R. Alex
87'
W. Tanee

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uthai Thani vs Lampang FC

Lampang FC beat Uthai Thani 2-0 in Thai League 2 on February 7, 2021.

Goals: R. Alex (27'), W. Tanee (87').

The match was played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Uthai Thani.