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Lampang FC vs Uthai Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Lampang FC
Lampang FC
FT
1 – 0
Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
D. Ferreira 57'
2/26/2020Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 3Lampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Lampang FC43%
×Draw26%
Uthai Thani31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lampang FC
1.46
Uthai Thani
1.19

Lampang FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 36 away

creates per match

Lampang FC
1.53
Uthai Thani
1.39

allows per match

Lampang FC
1.00
Uthai Thani
1.39

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par
Uthai Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Uthai Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw
69%
Lampang FC or Uthai Thani
74%
Draw or Uthai Thani
57%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+
21%
Uthai Thani wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals
77%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
43%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
18%
Uthai Thani 1+ goals
70%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
33%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)
58%
Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.00 · 90 matches

Uthai Thani away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.53 + Uthai Thani defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Uthai Thani attack 1.39 + Lampang FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lampang FC scores more
43%
level
26%
Uthai Thani scores more
31%

Lampang FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
D. Ferreira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Lampang FC 1–0 Uthai Thani

Lampang FC beat Uthai Thani 1-0 in Thai League 2 on February 26, 2020.

Goals: D. Ferreira (57').

The match was played at Lampang Provincial Stadium in Lampang.