Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Utenis Utena vs Palanga — 1 Lyga 2026

Utenis Utena
Utenis Utena
FT
4 – 2
Palanga
Palanga
8/2/20141 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 19Utenos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Utenis Utena66%
×Draw18%
Palanga16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utenis Utena
2.45
Palanga
1.13

Utenis Utena creates 117% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Utenis Utena
2.75
Palanga
1.00

allows per match

Utenis Utena
1.25
Palanga
2.14

finishing

Utenis Utena+0.00on par
Palanga+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utenis Utena ↓

Palanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Utenis Utena or draw
84%
Utenis Utena or Palanga
82%
Draw or Palanga
34%

Winning margin

Utenis Utena wins by 2+
44%
Palanga wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Utenis Utena 1+ goals
91%
Utenis Utena 2+ goals
70%
Utenis Utena 3+ goals
44%
Palanga 1+ goals
68%
Palanga 2+ goals
31%
Palanga 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Utenis Utena (draw refunded)
80%
Palanga (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utenis Utena at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Palanga away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utenis Utena attack 2.75 + Palanga defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.45

Palanga attack 1.00 + Utenis Utena defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Utenis Utena scores more
66%
level
18%
Palanga scores more
16%

Utenis Utena at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Utenis Utena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Utenis Utena vs Palanga

Utenis Utena beat Palanga 4-2 in 1 Lyga on August 2, 2014.

The match was played at Utenos stadionas in Utena.