Palanga 0–3 Utenis Utena: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Palanga

FT

0 – 3

Utenis Utena

5/18/2014

1 Lyga · Round 6Centrinis miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Palanga15%

×Draw15%

Utenis Utena70%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalangaExpected goals in this matchUtenis Utena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

3.17

Palanga

1.46

Utenis Utena

3.17

Utenis Utena creates 117% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.17

creates per match

2.50

3.83

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Palanga

2.17

Utenis Utena

2.50

allows per match

Palanga

3.83

Utenis Utena

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palanga+0.00on par

Utenis Utena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palanga ↓

Utenis Utena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–01%

1–15%

1–27%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Palanga or draw

30%

Palanga or Utenis Utena

85%

Draw or Utenis Utena

85%

Winning margin

Palanga wins by 2+

6%

Utenis Utena wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Palanga 1+ goals

77%

Palanga 2+ goals

43%

Palanga 3+ goals

18%

Utenis Utena 1+ goals

96%

Utenis Utena 2+ goals

82%

Utenis Utena 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Palanga (draw refunded)

18%

Utenis Utena (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palanga at home — creates 2.17, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

Utenis Utena away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palanga attack 2.17 + Utenis Utena defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Utenis Utena attack 2.50 + Palanga defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Palanga scores more

15%

level

15%

Utenis Utena scores more

70%

Utenis Utena at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Utenis Utena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff