Utebo 4–1 San Juan Mozarrifar: Result & Stats

Utebo

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

San Juan Mozarrifar

Guillermo Sánchez 75'

Rafinha 52'

Ramón Murillo 42' (pen)

Jaime Castelreanas 8'

Fran Rotellar 84'

9/15/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 4Estadio Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Utebo66%

×Draw21%

San Juan Mozarrifar13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UteboExpected goals in this matchSan Juan Mozarrifar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.73

Utebo

1.93

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.73

Utebo creates 164% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 24 away

1.77

creates per match

0.46

1.00

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Utebo

1.77

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.46

allows per match

Utebo

1.00

San Juan Mozarrifar

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utebo+0.00on par

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utebo ↓

San Juan Mozarrifar →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Utebo or draw

87%

Utebo or San Juan Mozarrifar

79%

Draw or San Juan Mozarrifar

34%

Winning margin

Utebo wins by 2+

40%

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+

Team goals

Utebo 1+ goals

85%

Utebo 2+ goals

57%

Utebo 3+ goals

30%

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals

52%

San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals

17%

San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Utebo (draw refunded)

83%

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Utebo at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 44 matches

San Juan Mozarrifar away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Utebo attack 1.77 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.93

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.46 + Utebo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Utebo scores more

66%

level

21%

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more

13%

Utebo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Utebo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Jaime Castelreanas

42'

Ramón MurilloPenalty

46'

Samuel Cardo← Diego Fernandez

46'

Fran Rotellar← Falo Burriel

52'

Rafinha

62'

Guillermo Sánchez← Ramón Murillo

64'

Óscar Valero← Israel García

75'

Guillermo Sánchez

76'

Luis Naval← Lucio Cavero

81'

Ángel Acerete← Catalá

84'

Fran Rotellar

Utebo

San

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: Victor Gumiel

46'▲Samuel Cardo←▼Diego Fernandez

62'▲Guillermo Sánchez←▼Ramón Murillo

76'▲Luis Naval←▼Lucio Cavero

Utebo substitutes

CardoSánchezNaval

Manager: Nacho Forcén

46'▲Fran Rotellar←▼Falo Burriel

64'▲Óscar Valero←▼Israel García

81'▲Ángel Acerete←▼Catalá

San Juan Mozarrifar substitutes

RotellarValeroAcerete