San Juan Mozarrifar 3–2 Utebo: Result & Stats

San Juan Mozarrifar

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Utebo

Gotor 88'

Magallón 66' (OG)

Cano 47'

Miguel Manau 70'

Álex Navarro 24' (OG)

1/26/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 25Campo Municipal el Gállego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

San Juan Mozarrifar26%

×Draw26%

Utebo48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Juan MozarrifarExpected goals in this matchUtebo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.50

San Juan Mozarrifar

1.02

Utebo

1.50

Utebo creates 47% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 45 away

0.93

creates per match

1.09

1.90

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.93

Utebo

1.09

allows per match

San Juan Mozarrifar

1.90

Utebo

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Utebo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan Mozarrifar ↓

Utebo →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

San Juan Mozarrifar or draw

52%

San Juan Mozarrifar or Utebo

74%

Draw or Utebo

74%

Winning margin

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+

Utebo wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals

64%

San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals

27%

San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals

Utebo 1+ goals

78%

Utebo 2+ goals

44%

Utebo 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)

35%

Utebo (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Juan Mozarrifar at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.90 · 29 matches

Utebo away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.93 + Utebo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Utebo attack 1.09 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more

26%

level

26%

Utebo scores more

48%

Utebo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Utebo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Álex NavarroOwn goal

46'

Ángel Acerete← Óscar Valero

47'

Cano

59'

Miguel Manau← Jorge Rey

66'

MagallónOwn goal

70'

Miguel Manau

79'

Alejandro Garrido← Rupérez

84'

Edu Silva← Alejandro Domínguez

88'

Gotor

89'

Fran de Asís← Rodri

San

Utebo

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

▼

🥅

⚽

Manager: Nacho Forcén

46'▲Ángel Acerete←▼Óscar Valero

79'▲Alejandro Garrido←▼Rupérez

San Juan Mozarrifar substitutes

AcereteGarrido

Manager: Rubén Zapater

59'▲Miguel Manau←▼Jorge Rey

84'▲Edu Silva←▼Alejandro Domínguez

89'▲Fran de Asís←▼Rodri

Utebo substitutes

ManauSilvaAsís