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UTC Cajamarca vs U. San Martin — Primera División 2018

UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
U. San Martin
U. San Martin
5/2/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 12Estadio Héroes de San Ramón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

UTC Cajamarca52%
×Draw25%
U. San Martin24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTC Cajamarca
1.64
U. San Martin
1.02

UTC Cajamarca creates 61% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 85 away

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.41
U. San Martin
0.91

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.12
U. San Martin
1.87

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par
U. San Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

U. San Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw
76%
UTC Cajamarca or U. San Martin
75%
Draw or U. San Martin
48%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
28%
U. San Martin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
81%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
49%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
23%
U. San Martin 1+ goals
64%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
27%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
69%
U. San Martin (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

U. San Martin away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.87 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + U. San Martin defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.64

U. San Martin attack 0.91 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more
52%
level
25%
U. San Martin scores more
24%

UTC Cajamarca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UTC Cajamarca vs U. San Martin

UTC Cajamarca beat U. San Martin 3-1 in Primera División on May 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón in Cajamarca.