Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

U. San Martin vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

U. San Martin
U. San Martin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
11/19/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 7Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

U. San Martin44%
×Draw26%
UTC Cajamarca30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. San Martin
1.44
UTC Cajamarca
1.13

U. San Martin creates 27% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 144 away

creates per match

U. San Martin
1.24
UTC Cajamarca
0.91

allows per match

U. San Martin
1.34
UTC Cajamarca
1.63

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par
UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw
70%
U. San Martin or UTC Cajamarca
74%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
56%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+
21%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals
76%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
42%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
18%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
68%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
31%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)
60%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 83 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.24 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + U. San Martin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

U. San Martin scores more
44%
level
26%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
30%

U. San Martin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: U. San Martin 1–1 UTC Cajamarca

U. San Martin and UTC Cajamarca drew 1-1 in Primera División on November 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao in Callao.