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UTC Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo — Primera División 2018

UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
3/25/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Héroes de San Ramón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

UTC Cajamarca46%
×Draw26%
Sport Huancayo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTC Cajamarca
1.46
Sport Huancayo
1.08

UTC Cajamarca creates 35% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 147 away

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.41
Sport Huancayo
1.05

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.12
Sport Huancayo
1.50

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par
Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Sport Huancayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw
72%
UTC Cajamarca or Sport Huancayo
74%
Draw or Sport Huancayo
54%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
22%
Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
77%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
43%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
18%
Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
66%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
29%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
62%
Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sport Huancayo attack 1.05 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more
46%
level
26%
Sport Huancayo scores more
28%

UTC Cajamarca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: UTC Cajamarca 0–0 Sport Huancayo

UTC Cajamarca and Sport Huancayo drew 0-0 in Primera División on March 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón in Cajamarca.