Sport Huancayo 1–1 UTC Cajamarca: Result & Stats

Sport Huancayo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UTC Cajamarca

L. Cano 90+1'

J. Quintero 80'

5/25/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 17Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sport Huancayo56%

×Draw23%

UTC Cajamarca21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport HuancayoExpected goals in this matchUTC Cajamarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.04

Sport Huancayo

1.82

UTC Cajamarca

1.04

Sport Huancayo creates 75% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 48 away

1.74

creates per match

0.83

1.26

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Sport Huancayo

1.74

UTC Cajamarca

0.83

allows per match

Sport Huancayo

1.26

UTC Cajamarca

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

UTC Cajamarca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw

79%

Sport Huancayo or UTC Cajamarca

77%

Draw or UTC Cajamarca

44%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

32%

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

84%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

54%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

27%

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

65%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

28%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

72%

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.90 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.74 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.82

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.83 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more

56%

level

23%

UTC Cajamarca scores more

21%

Sport Huancayo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

R. Salcedo

Sport Huancayo · M

7.9

Match Events

13'

D. Mondino← P. Requena

37'

J. Cumbicus← M. Quina

45+1'

46'

46'

46'

49'

61'

67'

74'

80'

J. Quintero↳ V. Perlaza

83'

B. Serrano← L. Cano

89'

L. Aliaga← C. Fernández

90+1'

L. Cano↳ R. Salcedo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportUTC

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots11

9Corners4

10Fouls19

Shots

13Total Shots11

5On Target4

3Off Target7

5Blocked0

5Inside Box5

8Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

416Total Passes328

368Accurate Passes275

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Sport Huancayo vs UTC Cajamarca

Sport Huancayo and UTC Cajamarca drew 1-1 in Primera División on May 25, 2024.

Goals: J. Quintero (80'), L. Cano (90+1').

Sport Huancayo controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Huancayo in Huancayo.

Sport Huancayo vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sport Huancayo vs UTC Cajamarca