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Sport Huancayo vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2024

Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
J. Sanguinetti 7'
7/4/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 18Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sport Huancayo56%
×Draw23%
UTC Cajamarca21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Huancayo
1.82
UTC Cajamarca
1.04

Sport Huancayo creates 75% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 48 away

creates per match

Sport Huancayo
1.74
UTC Cajamarca
0.83

allows per match

Sport Huancayo
1.26
UTC Cajamarca
1.90

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par
UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw
79%
Sport Huancayo or UTC Cajamarca
77%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
44%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
32%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
84%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
54%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
27%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
65%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
28%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
72%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.90 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.74 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.82

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.83 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more
56%
level
23%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
21%

Sport Huancayo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
J. SanguinettiSport HuancayoSport Huancayo · M
8.3

Match Events

7'
J. Sanguinetti
8'
Nahuel Luján
63'
M. de Jesus← J. Posito
65'
Yonatan Murillo
67'
J. A. Rosell Delgado← L. Garro
69'
J. Herrera← M. Carranza
69'
P. Magallanes← N. Lujan
70'
Jarlin Quintero
88'
M. Gaona← D. Carabano
88'
L. Villar← J. Sanguinetti
89'
G. Balanta← F. Oncoy

Possession

48%Sport

Shots

13Sport

Pass accuracy

49%Sport

Statistics

SportUTC
Overview
48%Possession52%
13Total Shots14
1.07Expected Goals (xG)1.24
5Corners4
12Fouls18
Shots
13Total Shots14
2On Target3
8Off Target8
3Blocked3
7Inside Box8
6Outside Box6
Passing
48%Possession52%
336Total Passes376
275Accurate Passes314
82%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls18
2Yellow Cards1
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Sport Huancayo vs UTC Cajamarca

Sport Huancayo beat UTC Cajamarca 1-0 in Primera División on July 4, 2025.

Goals: J. Sanguinetti (7').

UTC Cajamarca controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Huancayo in Huancayo.