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UTC Cajamarca vs Molinos El Pirata — Primera División 2018

UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Molinos El Pirata
Molinos El Pirata
6/11/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 17Estadio Héroes de San Ramón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

UTC Cajamarca60%
×Draw22%
Molinos El Pirata18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTC Cajamarca
1.91
Molinos El Pirata
0.94

UTC Cajamarca creates 103% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 17 away

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.41
Molinos El Pirata
0.76

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.12
Molinos El Pirata
2.41

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par
Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Molinos El Pirata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw
82%
UTC Cajamarca or Molinos El Pirata
78%
Draw or Molinos El Pirata
40%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
35%
Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
85%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
57%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
30%
Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals
61%
Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals
24%
Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
77%
Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

Molinos El Pirata away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + Molinos El Pirata defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.91

Molinos El Pirata attack 0.76 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more
60%
level
22%
Molinos El Pirata scores more
18%

UTC Cajamarca at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: UTC Cajamarca 4–1 Molinos El Pirata

UTC Cajamarca beat Molinos El Pirata 4-1 in Primera División on June 11, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón in Cajamarca.