Molinos El Pirata vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Molinos El Pirata43%
UTC Cajamarca29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Molinos El Pirata creates 29% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 144 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Molinos El Pirata ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Molinos El Pirata at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches
UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Molinos El Pirata attack 0.94 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.28
UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Molinos El Pirata defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Molinos El Pirata at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Molinos El Pirata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Alianza Lima
Cusco
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Sporting Cristal
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
Alianza Atletico
Comerciantes Unidos
Sport Huancayo
Sport Boys
Atletico Grau
Juan Pablo II CollegeUTC Cajamarca
Ayacucho FC
Alianza Universidad
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo BinacionalIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Molinos El Pirata host UTC Cajamarca on Sunday, 24 November 2019 at 16:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2026/2027 season.
Molinos El Pirata 3 – 1 UTC Cajamarca
Molinos El Pirata beat UTC Cajamarca 3-1 in Primera División on November 24, 2019.
Goals: K. Ruíz (32'), F. Ramírez (48'), M. Ceballos (64', 90+2').
Molinos El Pirata controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 9.
The match was played at Estadio Francisco Mendoza Pizarro in Lambayeque.