UTC Cajamarca 0–2 Cienciano: Result & Stats

UTC Cajamarca

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Cienciano

C. Garces 75'

M. Amondarain 66'

10/13/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 14Estadio Heroes de San Ramon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

UTC Cajamarca40%

×Draw26%

Cienciano34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UTC CajamarcaExpected goals in this matchCienciano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.25

UTC Cajamarca

1.39

Cienciano

1.25

UTC Cajamarca creates 11% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 44 away

1.28

creates per match

1.18

1.32

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.28

Cienciano

1.18

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.32

Cienciano

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Cienciano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Cienciano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw

66%

UTC Cajamarca or Cienciano

74%

Draw or Cienciano

60%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

19%

Cienciano wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

75%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

40%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

16%

Cienciano 1+ goals

71%

Cienciano 2+ goals

36%

Cienciano 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

54%

Cienciano (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.32 · 47 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.50 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.28 + Cienciano defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Cienciano attack 1.18 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more

40%

level

26%

Cienciano scores more

34%

UTC Cajamarca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

D. Ortiz

Cienciano · D

8.3

Match Events

43'

Maximiliano Amondarain

45+2'

Roberto Villamarín

66'

M. Amondarain

67'

C. Souza Espana← C. Neira

68'

Freddy Oncoy

75'

C. Garces↳ B. Da Silva

78'

A. Ramua← B. Da Silva

78'

L. E. Benites Vargas← A. Hohberg

79'

B. Palacios← A. Vasquez

80'

J. Cantt← F. Oncoy

84'

Jarlin QuinteroGoal cancelled

90+6'

José Luján

90+1'

N. Amasifuen← A. Gonzalez

90+1'

O. Noronha← C. Garces

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UTCCienciano

Overview

49%Possession51%

14Total Shots17

5Corners4

15Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots17

2On Target7

6Off Target7

6Blocked3

8Inside Box11

6Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

328Total Passes337

235Accurate Passes256

72%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides5