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UTC Cajamarca vs Cienciano — Primera División 2026

UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cienciano
Cienciano
K. Aparicio 89'
C. Garcés 90+4'
D. La Torre 86'
9/13/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 10Estadio Municipal Germán Contreras Jara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

UTC Cajamarca35%
×Draw26%
Cienciano38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTC Cajamarca
1.26
Cienciano
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 29 away

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.14
Cienciano
1.31

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.35
Cienciano
1.38

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par
Cienciano+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Cienciano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw
62%
UTC Cajamarca or Cienciano
74%
Draw or Cienciano
65%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
15%
Cienciano wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
72%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
36%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
13%
Cienciano 1+ goals
74%
Cienciano 2+ goals
38%
Cienciano 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
48%
Cienciano (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.35 · 43 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.14 + Cienciano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Cienciano attack 1.31 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more
35%
level
26%
Cienciano scores more
38%

Cienciano at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
C. GarcésCiencianoCienciano · F
8.0

Match Events

37'
Alfredo Ramúa
45'
Pedro Paulo Requena
61'
R. Palomino← A. Ramírez
65'
J. Cuero← P. Requena
65'
C. Ojeda← J. Pérez
69'
C. Cueva← A. Ramúa
72'
Claudio Torrejón
75'
D. La Torre← J. Romagnoli
75'
A. Rodríguez← G. Ritacco
78'
J. Sánchez← V. Perlaza
85'
Marcelo Benítez
86'
Á. Ojeda← Á. Romero
86'
D. La Torre↳ C. Garcés
87'
C. Fernández← M. Otazú
89'
K. Aparicio↳ J. Sánchez
90+4'
C. Garcés↳ A. Rodríguez

Possession

58%UTC

Shots

15UTC

Pass accuracy

54%UTC

Statistics

UTCCienciano
Overview
58%Possession42%
15Total Shots10
10Corners3
16Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots10
2On Target3
7Off Target7
6Blocked0
9Inside Box8
6Outside Box2
Passing
58%Possession42%
326Total Passes250
247Accurate Passes160
76%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: UTC Cajamarca vs Cienciano

Cienciano beat UTC Cajamarca 2-1 in Primera División on September 13, 2024.

Goals: D. La Torre (86'), K. Aparicio (89'), C. Garcés (90+4').

UTC Cajamarca controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Germán Contreras Jara in Cajabamba.