UTC Cajamarca 3–0 Cienciano: Result & Stats

UTC Cajamarca

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cienciano

9/26/2020

Primera División · Apertura - 14Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

UTC Cajamarca44%

×Draw26%

Cienciano30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UTC CajamarcaExpected goals in this matchCienciano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.17

UTC Cajamarca

1.48

Cienciano

1.17

UTC Cajamarca creates 26% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 106 away

1.41

creates per match

1.21

1.12

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.41

Cienciano

1.21

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.12

Cienciano

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Cienciano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Cienciano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw

70%

UTC Cajamarca or Cienciano

74%

Draw or Cienciano

56%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

22%

Cienciano wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

77%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

43%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

19%

Cienciano 1+ goals

69%

Cienciano 2+ goals

33%

Cienciano 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

60%

Cienciano (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + Cienciano defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cienciano attack 1.21 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more

44%

level

26%

Cienciano scores more

30%

UTC Cajamarca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: UTC Cajamarca 3–0 Cienciano

UTC Cajamarca beat Cienciano 3-0 in Primera División on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad San Marcos in Lima.

UTC Cajamarca vs Cienciano — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Primera División: UTC Cajamarca 3–0 Cienciano