UTC Cajamarca 1–1 Alianza Atletico: Result & Stats

UTC Cajamarca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Alianza Atletico

J. Quintero 34'

H. Benincasa 64' (pen)

8/1/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Municipal Germán Contreras Jara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

UTC Cajamarca49%

×Draw26%

Alianza Atletico25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UTC CajamarcaExpected goals in this matchAlianza Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.01

UTC Cajamarca

1.51

Alianza Atletico

1.01

UTC Cajamarca creates 50% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 93 away

1.41

creates per match

0.89

1.12

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.41

Alianza Atletico

0.89

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.12

Alianza Atletico

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Alianza Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw

75%

UTC Cajamarca or Alianza Atletico

74%

Draw or Alianza Atletico

51%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

25%

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

78%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

44%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

19%

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

64%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

27%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

66%

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.61 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.51

Alianza Atletico attack 0.89 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more

49%

level

26%

Alianza Atletico scores more

25%

UTC Cajamarca at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Melián

Alianza Atletico · G

8.7

Match Events

20'

Aldair Perleche

27'

Jonathan Segura

34'

J. Quintero↳ J. Segura

38'

Jarlin QuinteroGoal confirmed

45+3'

José Villegas

46'

J. Mendieta← A. Milesi

46'

E. Tovo← H. Lupú

49'

Koichi Aparicio

53'

Eric Tovo

60'

Rodrigo CastroPenalty confirmed

62'

Carlos Fernandez

64'

H. BenincasaPenalty

68'

C. Ojeda← C. Fernández

71'

R. Espinosa← R. Castro

72'

Horacio Benincasa

76'

Cristian OjedaCard upgrade

77'

Cristian Ojeda

78'

H. Arakaki← A. Perleche

83'

90+8'

90+8'

90+1'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UTCAlianza

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots12

1.08Expected Goals (xG)1.08

4Corners1

13Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots12

10On Target5

5Off Target7

2Blocked0

7Inside Box4

10Outside Box8

Passing

60%Possession40%

379Total Passes249

312Accurate Passes181

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves9

Discipline

13Fouls11

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

0Offsides2

Match Recap: UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico

UTC Cajamarca and Alianza Atletico drew 1-1 in Primera División on August 1, 2024.

Goals: J. Quintero (34'), H. Benincasa (64' pen).

UTC Cajamarca controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Germán Contreras Jara in Cajabamba.

UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico