Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 5+ matches
Alianza Atletico45%
UTC Cajamarca26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Alianza Atletico creates 41% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Alianza Atletico ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches
UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.43 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Alianza Atletico attack 1.10 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27
UTC Cajamarca attack 0.85 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Alianza Atletico at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Alianza Atletico substitutes
Sporting Cristal
Alianza Lima
Real Garcilaso
Deportivo Municipal
FBC Melgar
Union Comercio
Deportivo Binacional
Sport Boys
Sport Huancayo
Universitario
Sport Rosario
Academia Cantolao
U. San Martin
Ayacucho FC
Comerciantes UnidosFBC MelgarAlianza LimaAyacucho FCUniversitarioSporting CristalUnion ComercioU. San MartinReal GarcilasoAcademia CantolaoDeportivo MunicipalSport BoysComerciantes UnidosDeportivo BinacionalSport HuancayoSport RosarioIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Alianza Atletico host UTC Cajamarca on Friday, 16 February 2024 at 19:30. The match is part of the Primera División 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca
Alianza Atletico beat UTC Cajamarca 2-0 in Primera División on February 16, 2024.
Goals: R. Castro (13'), J. Canela (86').
Alianza Atletico controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 11.
The match was played at Estadio Campeones del '36 in Sullana.