UTC Cajamarca 1–1 Alianza Atletico: Result & Stats

UTC Cajamarca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Atletico

7/14/2023

Primera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Héroes de San Ramón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

UTC Cajamarca49%

×Draw26%

Alianza Atletico25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UTC CajamarcaExpected goals in this matchAlianza Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.01

UTC Cajamarca

1.51

Alianza Atletico

1.01

UTC Cajamarca creates 50% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 93 away

1.41

creates per match

0.89

1.12

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.41

Alianza Atletico

0.89

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.12

Alianza Atletico

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Alianza Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw

75%

UTC Cajamarca or Alianza Atletico

74%

Draw or Alianza Atletico

51%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

25%

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

78%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

44%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

19%

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

64%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

27%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

66%

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.61 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.51

Alianza Atletico attack 0.89 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more

49%

level

26%

Alianza Atletico scores more

25%

UTC Cajamarca at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff