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Utah United vs New Mexico United II — USL League Two 2018

Utah United
Utah United
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
New Mexico United II
New Mexico United II
6/28/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 15Clyde Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Utah United53%
×Draw22%
New Mexico United II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utah United
1.97
New Mexico United II
1.30

Utah United creates 52% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Utah United
2.37
New Mexico United II
1.72

allows per match

Utah United
0.89
New Mexico United II
1.56

finishing

Utah United+0.00on par
New Mexico United II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utah United ↓

New Mexico United II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Utah United or draw
75%
Utah United or New Mexico United II
78%
Draw or New Mexico United II
47%

Winning margin

Utah United wins by 2+
31%
New Mexico United II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Utah United 1+ goals
86%
Utah United 2+ goals
58%
Utah United 3+ goals
31%
New Mexico United II 1+ goals
73%
New Mexico United II 2+ goals
37%
New Mexico United II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Utah United (draw refunded)
68%
New Mexico United II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utah United at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

New Mexico United II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utah United attack 2.37 + New Mexico United II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.97

New Mexico United II attack 1.72 + Utah United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Utah United scores more
53%
level
22%
New Mexico United II scores more
25%

Utah United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Utah United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Utah United 2–2 New Mexico United II

Utah United and New Mexico United II drew 2-2 in USL League Two on June 28, 2024.

The match was played at Clyde Field in Orem, Utah.