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New Mexico United II vs Utah United — USL League Two 2018

New Mexico United II
New Mexico United II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Utah United
Utah United
6/6/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 7Angelo DiPaola Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

New Mexico United II28%
×Draw23%
Utah United48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Mexico United II
1.31
Utah United
1.77

Utah United creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

New Mexico United II
1.69
Utah United
2.11

allows per match

New Mexico United II
1.44
Utah United
0.94

finishing

New Mexico United II+0.00on par
Utah United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Mexico United II ↓

Utah United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

New Mexico United II or draw
52%
New Mexico United II or Utah United
77%
Draw or Utah United
72%

Winning margin

New Mexico United II wins by 2+
12%
Utah United wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

New Mexico United II 1+ goals
73%
New Mexico United II 2+ goals
38%
New Mexico United II 3+ goals
14%
Utah United 1+ goals
83%
Utah United 2+ goals
53%
Utah United 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

New Mexico United II (draw refunded)
37%
Utah United (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Mexico United II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Utah United away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Mexico United II attack 1.69 + Utah United defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.31

Utah United attack 2.11 + New Mexico United II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

New Mexico United II scores more
28%
level
23%
Utah United scores more
48%

Utah United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Utah United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: New Mexico United II 0–2 Utah United

Utah United beat New Mexico United II 2-0 in USL League Two on June 6, 2024.

The match was played at Angelo DiPaola Memorial Stadium in Gallup, New Mexico.