Utah Royals W 1–0 Racing Louisville W

Utah Royals W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Racing Louisville W

Ana Tejada 78'

9/28/2024

NWSL Women · Round 16America First Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Utah Royals W40%

×Draw26%

Racing Louisville W34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Utah Royals WExpected goals in this matchRacing Louisville W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.26

Utah Royals W

1.40

Racing Louisville W

1.26

Utah Royals W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

1.12

creates per match

1.16

1.36

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Utah Royals W

1.12

Racing Louisville W

1.16

allows per match

Utah Royals W

1.36

Racing Louisville W

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utah Royals W+0.00on par

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utah Royals W ↓

Racing Louisville W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Utah Royals W or draw

66%

Utah Royals W or Racing Louisville W

74%

Draw or Racing Louisville W

60%

Winning margin

Utah Royals W wins by 2+

19%

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Utah Royals W 1+ goals

75%

Utah Royals W 2+ goals

41%

Utah Royals W 3+ goals

17%

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

72%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

36%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Utah Royals W (draw refunded)

54%

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utah Royals W at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

Racing Louisville W away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utah Royals W attack 1.12 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Racing Louisville W attack 1.16 + Utah Royals W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Utah Royals W scores more

40%

level

26%

Racing Louisville W scores more

34%

Utah Royals W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Utah Royals W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Ana Tejada

Utah Royals W · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

C. Tucker← P. Monaghan

10'

Cameron Tucker

45+3'

Taylor Kornieck

46'

M. Cluff← D. Foederer

46'

K. Fischer← B. Balcer

46'

E. Sears← Ary Borges

56'

Kate Del Fava

66'

Kaleigh Riehl

78'

Ana Tejada↳ Claudia Zornoza

86'

M. Pokorny← J. Beckie

87'

Zoe Burns

87'

M. Vasconcelos← Ana Tejada

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UtahRacing

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots11

8Corners2

17Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots11

5On Target2

7Off Target4

5Blocked5

11Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

451Total Passes379

368Accurate Passes292

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls9

4Yellow Cards1