Racing Louisville W 5–1 Utah Royals W

Racing Louisville W

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Utah Royals W

E. Sears 90+1'

R. Turner 87'

S. DeMelo 78' (pen), 68'

U. Kanu 26'

O. Griffitts 45+3'

4/20/2024

NWSL Women · Round 4Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Racing Louisville W43%

×Draw25%

Utah Royals W31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Louisville WExpected goals in this matchUtah Royals W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.23

Racing Louisville W

1.50

Utah Royals W

1.23

Racing Louisville W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

1.36

creates per match

1.19

1.28

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Racing Louisville W

1.36

Utah Royals W

1.19

allows per match

Racing Louisville W

1.28

Utah Royals W

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Utah Royals W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Louisville W ↓

Utah Royals W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Racing Louisville W or draw

69%

Racing Louisville W or Utah Royals W

75%

Draw or Utah Royals W

57%

Winning margin

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

21%

Utah Royals W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

78%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

44%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

19%

Utah Royals W 1+ goals

71%

Utah Royals W 2+ goals

35%

Utah Royals W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

58%

Utah Royals W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Louisville W at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Utah Royals W away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Louisville W attack 1.36 + Utah Royals W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Utah Royals W attack 1.19 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Racing Louisville W scores more

43%

level

25%

Utah Royals W scores more

31%

Racing Louisville W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Racing Louisville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. DeMelo

Racing Louisville W · M

8.5

Match Events

13'

Lauren Milliet

26'

U. Kanu↳ L. Milliet

37'

Savannah DeMelo

45+3'

O. Griffitts↳ A. Sentnor

54'

54'

68'

72'

74'

76'

Emma SearsPenalty confirmed

78'

S. DeMeloPenalty

79'

M. Vasconcelos← Z. Burns

85'

M. DiGrande← S. DeMelo

87'

R. Turner↳ C. Pickett

90+1'

E. Sears↳ M. DiGrande

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingUtah

Overview

50%Possession50%

18Total Shots10

3Corners2

16Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots10

10On Target2

7Off Target5

1Blocked3

14Inside Box5

4Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

429Total Passes438

348Accurate Passes345

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0