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Utah Royals W vs North Carolina Courage W — NWSL Women 2026

Utah Royals W
Utah Royals W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
North Carolina Courage W
North Carolina Courage W
3/23/2024NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 2America First Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Utah Royals W35%
×Draw27%
North Carolina Courage W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utah Royals W
1.22
North Carolina Courage W
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 81 away

creates per match

Utah Royals W
1.09
North Carolina Courage W
1.35

allows per match

Utah Royals W
1.24
North Carolina Courage W
1.35

finishing

Utah Royals W+0.00on par
North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utah Royals W ↓

North Carolina Courage W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Utah Royals W or draw
62%
Utah Royals W or North Carolina Courage W
73%
Draw or North Carolina Courage W
65%

Winning margin

Utah Royals W wins by 2+
15%
North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Utah Royals W 1+ goals
70%
Utah Royals W 2+ goals
34%
Utah Royals W 3+ goals
12%
North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals
72%
North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals
37%
North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Utah Royals W (draw refunded)
48%
North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utah Royals W at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

North Carolina Courage W away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utah Royals W attack 1.09 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.35 + Utah Royals W defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Utah Royals W scores more
35%
level
27%
North Carolina Courage W scores more
38%

North Carolina Courage W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NWSL Women: Utah Royals W 2–1 North Carolina Courage W

Utah Royals W beat North Carolina Courage W 2-1 in NWSL Women on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at America First Field in Sandy, Utah.