Utah Royals W 0–3 North Carolina Courage W

Utah Royals W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

North Carolina Courage W

9/22/2019

NWSL Women · Round 10Rio Tinto Stadium (Sandy, Utah)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Utah Royals W36%

×Draw27%

North Carolina Courage W37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Utah Royals WExpected goals in this matchNorth Carolina Courage W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.27

Utah Royals W

1.23

North Carolina Courage W

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 82 away

1.09

creates per match

1.33

1.21

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Utah Royals W

1.09

North Carolina Courage W

1.33

allows per match

Utah Royals W

1.21

North Carolina Courage W

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utah Royals W+0.00on par

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utah Royals W ↓

North Carolina Courage W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Utah Royals W or draw

63%

Utah Royals W or North Carolina Courage W

73%

Draw or North Carolina Courage W

64%

Winning margin

Utah Royals W wins by 2+

15%

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Utah Royals W 1+ goals

71%

Utah Royals W 2+ goals

35%

Utah Royals W 3+ goals

13%

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals

72%

North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals

36%

North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Utah Royals W (draw refunded)

49%

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utah Royals W at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 47 matches

North Carolina Courage W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utah Royals W attack 1.09 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.33 + Utah Royals W defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Utah Royals W scores more

36%

level

27%

North Carolina Courage W scores more

37%

North Carolina Courage W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff