Utah Royals W vs Kansas City W

Utah Royals W

Preview

22:30

Kansas City W

10/17/2026

NWSL Women · Group StageAmerica First Field

Big match

38%

Utah Royals W

model favours

38%27%35%

Kansas City W have won 5 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Utah Royals W38%

×Draw27%

Kansas City W35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Utah Royals WExpected goals in this matchKansas City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.20

Utah Royals W

1.25

Kansas City W

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 72 away

1.09

creates per match

1.19

1.21

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Utah Royals W

1.09

Kansas City W

1.19

allows per match

Utah Royals W

1.21

Kansas City W

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utah Royals W+0.00on par

Kansas City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utah Royals W ↓

Kansas City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Utah Royals W or draw

65%

Utah Royals W or Kansas City W

73%

Draw or Kansas City W

62%

Winning margin

Utah Royals W wins by 2+

16%

Kansas City W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Utah Royals W 1+ goals

71%

Utah Royals W 2+ goals

36%

Utah Royals W 3+ goals

13%

Kansas City W 1+ goals

70%

Kansas City W 2+ goals

34%

Kansas City W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Utah Royals W (draw refunded)

52%

Kansas City W (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utah Royals W at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 47 matches

Kansas City W away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utah Royals W attack 1.09 + Kansas City W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kansas City W attack 1.19 + Utah Royals W defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Utah Royals W scores more

38%

level

27%

Kansas City W scores more

35%

Utah Royals W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Utah Royals W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Kansas City W outscore their xG (2.3 vs 1.6 expected)
Utah Royals W fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Utah Royals W

Balanced

Kansas City W

Defensively solid

49%Possession47%

76%Pass accuracy76%

10.4ShotsBiggest gap13.3

1.59xG1.60

Utah Royals WKansas City W

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0

Utah Royals W

0

Draws

5

Kansas City W

Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 20%

1–20–10–30–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

W

WLLDW

W

DLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff