Utah Royals W 0–1 Kansas City W: Result & Stats

Utah Royals W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kansas City W

5/26/2024

NWSL Women · Round 9America First Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Utah Royals W38%

×Draw27%

Kansas City W35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Utah Royals WExpected goals in this matchKansas City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.20

Utah Royals W

1.25

Kansas City W

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 72 away

1.09

creates per match

1.19

1.21

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Utah Royals W

1.09

Kansas City W

1.19

allows per match

Utah Royals W

1.21

Kansas City W

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utah Royals W+0.00on par

Kansas City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utah Royals W ↓

Kansas City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Utah Royals W or draw

65%

Utah Royals W or Kansas City W

73%

Draw or Kansas City W

62%

Winning margin

Utah Royals W wins by 2+

16%

Kansas City W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Utah Royals W 1+ goals

71%

Utah Royals W 2+ goals

36%

Utah Royals W 3+ goals

13%

Kansas City W 1+ goals

70%

Kansas City W 2+ goals

34%

Kansas City W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Utah Royals W (draw refunded)

52%

Kansas City W (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utah Royals W at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 47 matches

Kansas City W away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utah Royals W attack 1.09 + Kansas City W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kansas City W attack 1.19 + Utah Royals W defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Utah Royals W scores more

38%

level

27%

Kansas City W scores more

35%

Utah Royals W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Utah Royals W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff