Kansas City W 1–0 Utah Royals W: Result & Stats

Kansas City W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Utah Royals W

9/7/2024

NWSL Women · Round 14CPKC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Kansas City W52%

×Draw24%

Utah Royals W23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kansas City WExpected goals in this matchUtah Royals W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.04

Kansas City W

1.68

Utah Royals W

1.04

Kansas City W creates 62% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 48 away

1.82

creates per match

1.02

1.06

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Kansas City W

1.82

Utah Royals W

1.02

allows per match

Kansas City W

1.06

Utah Royals W

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kansas City W+0.00on par

Utah Royals W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansas City W ↓

Utah Royals W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kansas City W or draw

77%

Kansas City W or Utah Royals W

76%

Draw or Utah Royals W

48%

Winning margin

Kansas City W wins by 2+

28%

Utah Royals W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kansas City W 1+ goals

81%

Kansas City W 2+ goals

50%

Kansas City W 3+ goals

24%

Utah Royals W 1+ goals

65%

Utah Royals W 2+ goals

28%

Utah Royals W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kansas City W (draw refunded)

69%

Utah Royals W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansas City W at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

Utah Royals W away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansas City W attack 1.82 + Utah Royals W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.68

Utah Royals W attack 1.02 + Kansas City W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kansas City W scores more

52%

level

24%

Utah Royals W scores more

23%

Kansas City W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kansas City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff