SHANGHAI SIPG 0–0 Tianjin Songjiang: Result & Stats

SHANGHAI SIPG

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tianjin Songjiang

8/6/2017

Super League · Round 20Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG56%

×Draw22%

Tianjin Songjiang22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SHANGHAI SIPGExpected goals in this matchTianjin Songjiang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.13

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.96

Tianjin Songjiang

1.13

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 73% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 35 away

2.34

creates per match

1.34

0.91

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.34

Tianjin Songjiang

1.34

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

0.91

Tianjin Songjiang

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw

78%

SHANGHAI SIPG or Tianjin Songjiang

78%

Draw or Tianjin Songjiang

44%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

33%

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

86%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

58%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

31%

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals

68%

Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals

31%

Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

72%

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.91 · 116 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.34 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.96

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.34 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

56%

level

22%

Tianjin Songjiang scores more

22%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Alexandre Pato

Tianjin Songjiang · F

7.3

Match Events

60'

63'

63'

65'

69'

71'

72'

83'

85'

Li Shenglong← Fu Huan

90+3'

Wang Jie← Wang Yongpo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SHANGHAITianjin

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots9

3Corners5

23Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots9

1On Target2

7Off Target6

3Blocked1

3Inside Box4

8Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

286Total Passes301

222Accurate Passes224

78%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

23Fouls19

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides5