Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shanghai SIPG vs Tianjin Songjiang — Super League 2018

Shanghai SIPG
Shanghai SIPG
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
8/3/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shanghai SIPG60%
×Draw20%
Tianjin Songjiang20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai SIPG
2.16
Tianjin Songjiang
1.15

Shanghai SIPG creates 88% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 30 away

creates per match

Shanghai SIPG
2.42
Tianjin Songjiang
1.40

allows per match

Shanghai SIPG
0.90
Tianjin Songjiang
1.90

finishing

Shanghai SIPG+0.00on par
Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai SIPG ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Shanghai SIPG or draw
80%
Shanghai SIPG or Tianjin Songjiang
80%
Draw or Tianjin Songjiang
40%

Winning margin

Shanghai SIPG wins by 2+
37%
Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shanghai SIPG 1+ goals
88%
Shanghai SIPG 2+ goals
63%
Shanghai SIPG 3+ goals
36%
Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
68%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
32%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shanghai SIPG (draw refunded)
75%
Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai SIPG at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.90 · 119 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai SIPG attack 2.42 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.16

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Shanghai SIPG defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Shanghai SIPG scores more
60%
level
20%
Tianjin Songjiang scores more
20%

Shanghai SIPG at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Shanghai SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shanghai SIPG 0–0 Tianjin Songjiang

Shanghai SIPG and Tianjin Songjiang drew 0-0 in Super League on August 3, 2019.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.