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Utah Avalanche vs Flatirons Rush — USL League Two 2018

Utah Avalanche
Utah Avalanche
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Flatirons Rush
Flatirons Rush
6/8/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 8Woods Cross High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Utah Avalanche27%
×Draw23%
Flatirons Rush49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utah Avalanche
1.27
Flatirons Rush
1.78

Flatirons Rush creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 30 away

creates per match

Utah Avalanche
1.00
Flatirons Rush
1.90

allows per match

Utah Avalanche
1.67
Flatirons Rush
1.53

finishing

Utah Avalanche+0.00on par
Flatirons Rush+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utah Avalanche ↓

Flatirons Rush →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Utah Avalanche or draw
51%
Utah Avalanche or Flatirons Rush
77%
Draw or Flatirons Rush
73%

Winning margin

Utah Avalanche wins by 2+
11%
Flatirons Rush wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Utah Avalanche 1+ goals
72%
Utah Avalanche 2+ goals
36%
Utah Avalanche 3+ goals
14%
Flatirons Rush 1+ goals
83%
Flatirons Rush 2+ goals
53%
Flatirons Rush 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Utah Avalanche (draw refunded)
36%
Flatirons Rush (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utah Avalanche at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Flatirons Rush away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utah Avalanche attack 1.00 + Flatirons Rush defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Flatirons Rush attack 1.90 + Utah Avalanche defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Utah Avalanche scores more
27%
level
23%
Flatirons Rush scores more
49%

Flatirons Rush at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Flatirons Rush will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Utah Avalanche vs Flatirons Rush

Utah Avalanche and Flatirons Rush drew 1-1 in USL League Two on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Woods Cross High School Stadium in Woods Cross, Utah.