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Flatirons Rush vs Utah Avalanche — USL League Two 2018

Flatirons Rush
Flatirons Rush
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Utah Avalanche
Utah Avalanche
7/12/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 19Stermole Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Flatirons Rush37%
×Draw24%
Utah Avalanche39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flatirons Rush
1.49
Utah Avalanche
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 6 away

creates per match

Flatirons Rush
1.48
Utah Avalanche
1.33

allows per match

Flatirons Rush
1.72
Utah Avalanche
1.50

finishing

Flatirons Rush+0.00on par
Utah Avalanche+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flatirons Rush ↓

Utah Avalanche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Flatirons Rush or draw
61%
Flatirons Rush or Utah Avalanche
76%
Draw or Utah Avalanche
63%

Winning margin

Flatirons Rush wins by 2+
18%
Utah Avalanche wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Flatirons Rush 1+ goals
77%
Flatirons Rush 2+ goals
44%
Flatirons Rush 3+ goals
19%
Utah Avalanche 1+ goals
78%
Utah Avalanche 2+ goals
45%
Utah Avalanche 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Flatirons Rush (draw refunded)
49%
Utah Avalanche (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flatirons Rush at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Utah Avalanche away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flatirons Rush attack 1.48 + Utah Avalanche defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.49

Utah Avalanche attack 1.33 + Flatirons Rush defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Flatirons Rush scores more
37%
level
24%
Utah Avalanche scores more
39%

Utah Avalanche at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Utah Avalanche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Flatirons Rush 4–1 Utah Avalanche

Flatirons Rush beat Utah Avalanche 4-1 in USL League Two on July 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stermole Soccer Stadium in Golden.