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Utah Avalanche vs Colorado ISA — USL League Two 2018

Utah Avalanche
Utah Avalanche
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Colorado ISA
Colorado ISA
6/27/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 14Westminster College

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Utah Avalanche57%
×Draw21%
Colorado ISA22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utah Avalanche
2.14
Colorado ISA
1.26

Utah Avalanche creates 70% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 29 away

creates per match

Utah Avalanche
1.00
Colorado ISA
0.86

allows per match

Utah Avalanche
1.67
Colorado ISA
3.28

finishing

Utah Avalanche+0.00on par
Colorado ISA+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utah Avalanche ↓

Colorado ISA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Utah Avalanche or draw
78%
Utah Avalanche or Colorado ISA
79%
Draw or Colorado ISA
43%

Winning margin

Utah Avalanche wins by 2+
35%
Colorado ISA wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Utah Avalanche 1+ goals
88%
Utah Avalanche 2+ goals
63%
Utah Avalanche 3+ goals
36%
Colorado ISA 1+ goals
72%
Colorado ISA 2+ goals
36%
Colorado ISA 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Utah Avalanche (draw refunded)
72%
Colorado ISA (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utah Avalanche at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Colorado ISA away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utah Avalanche attack 1.00 + Colorado ISA defence 3.28 → ÷2 → 2.14

Colorado ISA attack 0.86 + Utah Avalanche defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Utah Avalanche scores more
57%
level
21%
Colorado ISA scores more
22%

Utah Avalanche at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Utah Avalanche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Utah Avalanche vs Colorado ISA

Utah Avalanche beat Colorado ISA 2-1 in USL League Two on June 27, 2024.

The match was played at Westminster College in Salt Lake City, Utah.