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Colorado ISA vs Utah Avalanche — USL League Two 2018

Colorado ISA
Colorado ISA
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Utah Avalanche
Utah Avalanche
6/19/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 11Halftime Help Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Colorado ISA17%
×Draw19%
Utah Avalanche64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado ISA
1.13
Utah Avalanche
2.35

Utah Avalanche creates 108% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 6 away

creates per match

Colorado ISA
0.76
Utah Avalanche
1.33

allows per match

Colorado ISA
3.38
Utah Avalanche
1.50

finishing

Colorado ISA+0.00on par
Utah Avalanche+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado ISA ↓

Utah Avalanche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Colorado ISA or draw
36%
Colorado ISA or Utah Avalanche
81%
Draw or Utah Avalanche
83%

Winning margin

Colorado ISA wins by 2+
6%
Utah Avalanche wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Colorado ISA 1+ goals
68%
Colorado ISA 2+ goals
31%
Colorado ISA 3+ goals
11%
Utah Avalanche 1+ goals
90%
Utah Avalanche 2+ goals
68%
Utah Avalanche 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Colorado ISA (draw refunded)
21%
Utah Avalanche (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado ISA at home — creates 0.76, concedes 3.38 · 29 matches

Utah Avalanche away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado ISA attack 0.76 + Utah Avalanche defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Utah Avalanche attack 1.33 + Colorado ISA defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Colorado ISA scores more
17%
level
19%
Utah Avalanche scores more
64%

Utah Avalanche at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Utah Avalanche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colorado ISA 0 – 2 Utah Avalanche

Utah Avalanche beat Colorado ISA 2-0 in USL League Two on June 19, 2024.

The match was played at Halftime Help Stadium in Highlands Ranch, Colorado.