Uta Arad 1–2 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Uta Arad

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

V. Costache 59' (pen)

O. El Sawy 62'

D. Haruţ 37'

2/24/2025

Liga I · Round 28Stadionul Francisc von Neuman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Uta Arad39%

×Draw28%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uta AradExpected goals in this matchSepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.15

Uta Arad

1.25

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 135 away

1.25

creates per match

1.18

1.11

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Uta Arad

1.25

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.18

allows per match

Uta Arad

1.11

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uta Arad+0.00on par

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw

66%

Uta Arad or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

72%

Draw or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

61%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+

17%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals

71%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

36%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

13%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals

68%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals

32%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

53%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 120 matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.25 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.25 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.18 + Uta Arad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Uta Arad scores more

39%

level

28%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more

34%

Uta Arad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

V. Costache

Uta Arad · M

8.5

Match Events

27'

36'

37'

46'

46'

59'

V. CostachePenalty

62'

O. El Sawy

67'

Kouya Mabea

67'

Dávid Sigér

70'

M. Tzionis← M. Danciu

70'

L. Ghezali← K. Mabea

70'

S. Mailat← M. Nešković

70'

G. Debeljuh← M. Coman

77'

R. Cristea← E. Omondi

77'

D. Zsóri← S. Harrison

83'

S. Kallaku← F. Ștefan

87'

D. Oroian← O. El Sawy

90+4'

Dejan Iliev

90+4'

Denis Haruț

90+4'

Darius OroianPenalty cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UtaSepsi

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots6

2.30Expected Goals (xG)0.30

3Corners5

18Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots6

5On Target3

7Off Target2

2Blocked1

10Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

378Total Passes386

294Accurate Passes303

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1