Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–0 Uta Arad

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Uta Arad

10/19/2024

Liga I · Round 13Arena Sepsi OSK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe45%

×Draw28%

Uta Arad27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheExpected goals in this matchUta Arad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.94

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.31

Uta Arad

0.94

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe creates 39% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 116 away

1.42

creates per match

0.88

1.00

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.42

Uta Arad

0.88

allows per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.00

Uta Arad

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par

Uta Arad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe ↓

Uta Arad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw

73%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or Uta Arad

72%

Draw or Uta Arad

55%

Winning margin

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+

21%

Uta Arad wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals

73%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals

38%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals

14%

Uta Arad 1+ goals

61%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

24%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)

63%

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 137 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.42 + Uta Arad defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Uta Arad attack 0.88 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more

45%

level

28%

Uta Arad scores more

27%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff