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Uta Arad vs Rapid — Liga I 2018

Uta Arad
Uta Arad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rapid
Rapid
7/13/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 1Stadionul Francisc von Neuman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Uta Arad38%
×Draw28%
Rapid34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uta Arad
1.25
Rapid
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 99 away

creates per match

Uta Arad
1.25
Rapid
1.21

allows per match

Uta Arad
1.11
Rapid
1.26

finishing

Uta Arad+0.00on par
Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

Rapid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw
66%
Uta Arad or Rapid
72%
Draw or Rapid
62%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+
17%
Rapid wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals
71%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
36%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
13%
Rapid 1+ goals
69%
Rapid 2+ goals
32%
Rapid 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)
53%
Rapid (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 120 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.25 + Rapid defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rapid attack 1.21 + Uta Arad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Uta Arad scores more
38%
level
28%
Rapid scores more
34%

Uta Arad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Uta Arad 1 – 1 Rapid

Uta Arad and Rapid drew 1-1 in Liga I on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Francisc von Neuman in Arad.