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Rapid vs Uta Arad — Liga I 2018

Rapid
Rapid
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Uta Arad
Uta Arad
8/29/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 8Superbet Arena - Giulesti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Rapid48%
×Draw27%
Uta Arad25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid
1.42
Uta Arad
0.94

Rapid creates 51% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 116 away

creates per match

Rapid
1.63
Uta Arad
0.88

allows per match

Rapid
1.00
Uta Arad
1.21

finishing

Rapid+0.00on par
Uta Arad+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

Uta Arad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rapid or draw
75%
Rapid or Uta Arad
73%
Draw or Uta Arad
52%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+
24%
Uta Arad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals
76%
Rapid 2+ goals
41%
Rapid 3+ goals
17%
Uta Arad 1+ goals
61%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
24%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)
66%
Uta Arad (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 100 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.63 + Uta Arad defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Uta Arad attack 0.88 + Rapid defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rapid scores more
48%
level
27%
Uta Arad scores more
25%

Rapid at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapid vs Uta Arad

Rapid beat Uta Arad 2-0 in Liga I on August 29, 2025.

The match was played at Superbet Arena - Giulesti in Bucharest.