Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Uta Arad vs Rapid — Liga I 2026

Uta Arad
Uta Arad
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Rapid
Rapid
4/9/2022Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 4Stadionul Francisc von Neuman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Uta Arad38%
×Draw26%
Rapid35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uta Arad
1.33
Rapid
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Uta Arad
1.36
Rapid
1.23

allows per match

Uta Arad
1.30
Rapid
1.30

finishing

Uta Arad-0.29scores less
Rapid+0.34scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

Rapid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw
65%
Uta Arad or Rapid
74%
Draw or Rapid
62%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+
17%
Rapid wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals
74%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
38%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
15%
Rapid 1+ goals
72%
Rapid 2+ goals
36%
Rapid 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)
52%
Rapid (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 15 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.36 + Rapid defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rapid attack 1.23 + Uta Arad defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Uta Arad scores more
38%
level
26%
Rapid scores more
35%

Uta Arad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Uta Arad 0–2 Rapid

Rapid beat Uta Arad 2-0 in Liga I on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Francisc von Neuman in Arad.