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Uta Arad vs Politehnica Iasi — Liga I 2026

Uta Arad
Uta Arad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
9/23/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 10Stadionul Francisc von Neuman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Uta Arad48%
×Draw26%
Politehnica Iasi26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uta Arad
1.46
Politehnica Iasi
0.99

Uta Arad creates 47% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 100 away

creates per match

Uta Arad
1.25
Politehnica Iasi
0.87

allows per match

Uta Arad
1.11
Politehnica Iasi
1.67

finishing

Uta Arad+0.00on par
Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

Politehnica Iasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw
74%
Uta Arad or Politehnica Iasi
74%
Draw or Politehnica Iasi
52%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+
24%
Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals
77%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
43%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
18%
Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
63%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
26%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)
65%
Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 120 matches

Politehnica Iasi away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.67 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.25 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Politehnica Iasi attack 0.87 + Uta Arad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Uta Arad scores more
48%
level
26%
Politehnica Iasi scores more
26%

Uta Arad at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uta Arad vs Politehnica Iasi

Uta Arad and Politehnica Iasi drew 0-0 in Liga I on September 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Francisc von Neuman in Arad.