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Politehnica Iasi vs Uta Arad — Liga I 2026

Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Uta Arad
Uta Arad
2/6/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 25Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Politehnica Iasi37%
×Draw29%
Uta Arad34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Politehnica Iasi
1.16
Uta Arad
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 116 away

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.11
Uta Arad
0.88

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.30
Uta Arad
1.21

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par
Uta Arad+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

Uta Arad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw
66%
Politehnica Iasi or Uta Arad
71%
Draw or Uta Arad
63%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
16%
Uta Arad wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
69%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
32%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
11%
Uta Arad 1+ goals
66%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
30%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
52%
Uta Arad (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 96 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.11 + Uta Arad defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Uta Arad attack 0.88 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more
37%
level
29%
Uta Arad scores more
34%

Politehnica Iasi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Politehnica Iasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Politehnica Iasi vs Uta Arad

Uta Arad beat Politehnica Iasi 1-0 in Liga I on February 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu in Iaşi.