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Uta Arad vs Juventus Bucuresti — Liga II 2018

Uta Arad
Uta Arad
CANC
08:00
Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
9/28/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 9Stadionul Motorul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Uta Arad50%
×Draw24%
Juventus Bucuresti26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uta Arad
1.73
Juventus Bucuresti
1.18

Uta Arad creates 47% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

creates per match

Uta Arad
1.94
Juventus Bucuresti
1.11

allows per match

Uta Arad
1.24
Juventus Bucuresti
1.53

finishing

Uta Arad+0.00on par
Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

Juventus Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw
74%
Uta Arad or Juventus Bucuresti
76%
Draw or Juventus Bucuresti
50%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+
27%
Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals
82%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
52%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
25%
Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
69%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
33%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)
66%
Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Juventus Bucuresti away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.94 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.73

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.11 + Uta Arad defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Uta Arad scores more
50%
level
24%
Juventus Bucuresti scores more
26%

Uta Arad at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Uta Arad host Juventus Bucuresti

September 28, 2019: Uta Arad take on Juventus Bucuresti in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Uta Arad host Juventus Bucuresti at Stadionul Motorul.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.