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Juventus Bucuresti vs Uta Arad — Liga II 2018

Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
CANC
08:00
Uta Arad
Uta Arad
4/4/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventus Bucuresti41%
×Draw25%
Uta Arad35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Bucuresti
1.54
Uta Arad
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

creates per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.74
Uta Arad
1.45

allows per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.37
Uta Arad
1.33

finishing

Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par
Uta Arad+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Bucuresti ↓

Uta Arad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Juventus Bucuresti or draw
65%
Juventus Bucuresti or Uta Arad
75%
Draw or Uta Arad
59%

Winning margin

Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
20%
Uta Arad wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
79%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
45%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
20%
Uta Arad 1+ goals
76%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
41%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
54%
Uta Arad (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Bucuresti at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.74 + Uta Arad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Uta Arad attack 1.45 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Juventus Bucuresti scores more
41%
level
25%
Uta Arad scores more
35%

Juventus Bucuresti at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Juventus Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Juventus Bucuresti host Uta Arad

April 4, 2020: Juventus Bucuresti take on Uta Arad in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.