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Uta Arad vs FC Clinceni — Liga I 2018

Uta Arad
Uta Arad
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
2/25/2022Liga ILiga I · Round 28Stadionul Francisc von Neuman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Uta Arad51%
×Draw25%
FC Clinceni24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uta Arad
1.61
FC Clinceni
1.01

Uta Arad creates 59% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 59 away

creates per match

Uta Arad
1.25
FC Clinceni
0.90

allows per match

Uta Arad
1.11
FC Clinceni
1.98

finishing

Uta Arad+0.00on par
FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

FC Clinceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw
76%
Uta Arad or FC Clinceni
75%
Draw or FC Clinceni
49%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+
27%
FC Clinceni wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals
80%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
48%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
22%
FC Clinceni 1+ goals
64%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
27%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)
68%
FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 120 matches

FC Clinceni away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.25 + FC Clinceni defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.61

FC Clinceni attack 0.90 + Uta Arad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Uta Arad scores more
51%
level
25%
FC Clinceni scores more
24%

Uta Arad at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Uta Arad 2–0 FC Clinceni

Uta Arad beat FC Clinceni 2-0 in Liga I on February 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Francisc von Neuman in Arad.